Will El Niño return in 2021?

The tropical Pacific has been ENSO-neutral since May 2021, based on both oceanic and atmospheric indicators. Model predictions and expert assessment favor the continuation of the cool side of ENSO-neutral through September-November 2021 with 60% likelihood, and 40% likelihood for the re-emergence of La Niña conditions.

What is ENSO forecast?

In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period …

What is ENSO NOAA?

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important climatic phenomena on Earth. ENSO impacts on the U.S.

What does ENSO stand for?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

What happens to the ocean during ENSO?

During an El Niño event, the easterly trade winds converging across the equatorial Pacific weaken. This in turn slows the ocean current that draws surface water away from the western coast of South America and reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient–rich water from the deeper ocean, flattening out the thermocline.

How long does ENSO last?

How long does ENSO last? El Niño typically lasts 9–12 months, and La Niña typically lasts 1–3 years. Both tend to develop during March–June, reach peak intensity during December–April, and then weaken during May–July. However, prolonged El Niño episodes have lasted 2 years, and even as long as 3-4 years.

What are ENSO events?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena that has a worldwide impact on climate. The two largest ENSO events of the century were in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998; there was also an event in 1986-1987. Starting in late 1991 was an unusually long-lived event.

What are the effects of La Nina?

La Nina is a phenomenon occurring in the Pacific Ocean that can impact weather around the world. It involves stronger winds pushing warm water from the east of the ocean to the west. This can cause changes in wind and pressure patterns, along with temperature and rainfall, as a knock-on effect is felt around the globe.

What are La Nina conditions?

La Niña is defined as an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon wherein water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal. La Niña conditions occur on an average every 3 to 5 years and can persist for as long as two years. La Niña impacts global weather patterns.

What is an acronym for ENSO?

Acronym Definition; ENSO: El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO: Estonian National Symphony Orchestra (Tallinn, Estonia) ENSO: Entomology and Nematology Student Organization (University of Florida; Gainesville, FL)